Economic Forecast Summary India – June 2023

India

Weak global demand and the effect of monetary policy tightening to manage inflationary pressures will constrain the economy in FY 2023-24, limiting real GDP growth to 6%. Moderating inflation and monetary policy easing in the second half of 2024 will help discretionary household spending regain momentum. This, along with improved global conditions, will help economic activity to accelerate, with growth of 7% in real GDP in FY 2024-25.

Despite an impressive growth and development record, daunting challenges remain. Creating good jobs is the most promising pathway to reduce poverty, which is particularly high in the female population. Increasing investment in education and vocational training, and updating labour laws, would help to achieve this objective. India is particularly vulnerable to extreme heatwaves and must make progress in mobilising resources for investment in the green economy.

Moderating demand and high inflation have slowed economic activity

FY 2022-23 ended on a positive note, due to higher-than-expected agriculture output and strong government spending. However, high inflation, in particular for energy and food, and the ensuing monetary tightening to anchor expectations are weighing on purchasing power and household consumption, particularly in urban areas. Tighter financial market conditions are reflected in weakening credit-supported demand for capital goods, a good proxy for business investment. The merchandise trade deficit was 40% larger in FY 2022-23 than in FY 2021-22, with trade in petroleum accounting for over two-fifths of the deterioration. Although services export growth remains brisk and the sectoral surplus rose by 35%, it is insufficient to offset the imbalance in goods’ trade. Low labour productivity is affecting the competitiveness of “Made in India” goods and participation in global value chains. The current account deficit narrowed in the October-December quarter to 2.2% of GDP, from 2.7% in the same period in FY 2021-22. Headline inflation has fallen below 6% (the central bank’s upper bound of the tolerance band) since March 2023, mostly due to lower food prices, as well as base effects. Employment and wage estimates suggest improving labour market conditions in rural areas, while export-oriented service firms report increasing difficulties filling vacancies.

India 1

1. Headline inflation refers to the change in price of all goods in the basket. OECD seasonal adjustment based on monthly consumer price index (index 2012 = 100) from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI).

India: Demand, output and prices

Note: Data refer to fiscal years starting in April.

1. Contributions to changes in real GDP, actual amount in the first column.

2. Actual amount in first column includes statistical discrepancies and valuables.

3. WPI, all commodities index.

4. Gross fiscal balance for central and state governments. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 113 database.

India 2

1. GDP per worker at constant prices using 2017 PPP.

2. The Notre Dame-Global Adaptation Index is a composite indicator which summarises two sub-indices: 1) a country's vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges and 2) a country's readiness to improve resilience. The index is recalculated based on the best performing country's score (Norway = 100).

Source: APO Productivity Databook 2022; and University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative.

Domestic growth prospects are strongly influenced by global developments. India has seized the opportunity of discounted Urals oil, which has increased Russia’s share in its energy imports. The sourcing of fertilisers from Russia has also increased considerably, more than doubling in volume in the case of urea. Overall, Indian imports from Russia rose from USD 9.9 billion (1.6% of total imports) in FY 2021-22 to USD 46.2 billion (6.5%) in FY 2022-23.

Macroeconomic policies remain restrictive

Monetary policy is focused on anchoring inflation expectations and bringing headline inflation consistently within the 2-6% tolerance band. A long cycle of policy rate increases came to a halt in April. Following one further small increase, rates are expected to remain unchanged until the end of the calendar year, when evidence will confirm whether core inflation, which is less sensitive to weather conditions and geopolitical tensions, has durably diminished. The projections assume mild interest rate declines from mid-2024.

During the projection period, the priority for fiscal policy is to control government debt, so as to keep it at sustainable levels, reduce interest payments, and thereby free resources for public investment in physical and human capital and initiatives to adapt to population aging. The Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana scheme provided free foodgrains to eligible beneficiaries during the pandemic, but targeting was imprecise – as testified by the number of beneficiaries (820 million), well in excess of most estimates of the poor population (between 400 and 500 million) – and the cost excessive. Its suppression in 2023 reinforces the need to update the 2011 Census in order to guarantee coverage of eligible families. The next 25 years until the 2047 centenary of Independence will be crucial for India to fight poverty and the government strategy (so-called Amrit Kaal) will require a large increase in capital investment outlays.

The economy will not escape the global slowdown

After reaching 7.2% in FY 2022-23, real GDP growth is expected to slow to 6% in FY 2023-24, before rising to 7% in FY 2024-25. While indicators suggest that India’s growth is stable for now, headwinds from the impact of rapid monetary policy tightening in the advanced economies, heightened global uncertainty and the lagged impact of domestic policy tightening will progressively take effect. With slower growth, inflation expectations, housing prices and wages will progressively moderate, helping headline inflation converge towards 4.5%. This will allow interest rates to be lowered from mid-2024. The trade restrictions (including export bans on various rice varieties) imposed in 2022 to fight inflation are assumed to be withdrawn. The current account deficit will narrow, reflecting abating import price pressures.

Most risks to the projections are tilted to the downside. While banks’ solvency ratios and financial results have improved and the authorities have enhanced loan-loss provisioning and established a ‘bad bank’, any deterioration of banks’ asset quality could threaten macro-financial stability. In the run-up to the 2024 elections, fiscal consolidation may be delayed, and the conclusion of trade agreements may become more difficult. A potentially below-normal monsoon season could also impact growth. Declining geopolitical uncertainty, on the other hand, would boost confidence and benefit all sectors, as would a faster-than-expected conclusion of free-trade agreements with key partners and the incorporation therein of services.

Climate change and gender gaps require targeted policies

More than half of the Indian population lives in the Indo-Gangetic Plain and is exposed to the increasingly frequent and extreme heatwaves caused by climate change. It is estimated that almost 100 000 extra lives are lost every year due to hot weather and the flooding that can follow. The economic costs are also large,

including labour losses, a meagre wheat harvest, greater livestock mortality and power outages. Reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, including in India, will help limit such losses in the long term. However, measures that can immediately reduce the impact of extreme weather events are also needed, such as improved infrastructure to prevent flooding. Sustainable development also requires further progress in gender equality across many dimensions, including access to health, education and capital. Impressive results have been attained, for instance in financial inclusion, but substantial gaps remain. Policy formulation and execution should fully incorporate gender considerations and specific indicators. Enhanced policy efforts to increase childcare assistance, vocational training and life-long education for working women would also be welcome. Better enforcement of the land rights of women would strengthen their economic position and, by making it possible to use this asset as collateral, may also facilitate investments in climate mitigation and adaptation.

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